霍尔木兹海峡三艘油轮起火，伊朗“影子战争”重出江湖？

Group 1 - Three vessels or oil tankers are reported to be on fire near the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about a potential repeat of the 2019 tanker attacks, which were attributed to Iran [1] - The fire is believed to have been caused by a collision between two oil tankers, ADALYNN and Front Eagle, although the exact cause remains unconfirmed [1] - Following the news, international oil prices initially rose but later fell after reports of potential negotiations between the Trump team and Iran [2] Group 2 - There has been an increase in electronic interference affecting navigation systems of commercial vessels in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, posing operational challenges [3] - The financial risks associated with the ongoing Middle East conflict are primarily linked to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which would significantly impact global oil transportation [5] - Historical context indicates that Iran and its proxies have a history of targeting maritime shipping, with previous incidents leading to significant disruptions in the region [7][8] Group 3 - The U.S. Fifth Fleet may intervene to protect maritime trade if Iran and its allies escalate their actions, which could increase the risk of direct U.S. involvement in the conflict [9] - Despite the tensions, Brent crude oil prices have remained relatively stable around $75 per barrel, indicating that investors may not be overly concerned about immediate disruptions [10] - Investors may be underestimating the risks based on historical patterns, as past conflicts between Iran and Israel have often de-escalated quickly [11]