今年房价利好基本出完，如果没有意外，房地产市场将迎来5大变化

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a series of favorable policies aimed at stimulating demand and improving accessibility for potential homebuyers as 2024 approaches, with expectations for significant trends in 2025 [2] Group 1: Policy Changes - Most cities in China have lifted purchase restrictions, allowing more potential buyers to enter the market, except for core areas in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [2] - Financial policies remain accommodative, with mortgage rates dropping to around 3.2%, and down payment ratios reduced from 30% to 15%, effectively lowering the barriers to homeownership [2] - The government has implemented tax relief measures, including reductions in deed tax and value-added tax, to alleviate the financial burden on homebuyers [2] Group 2: Market Trends for 2025 - The market is shifting towards the sale of completed homes, moving away from the pre-sale model, which will enhance buyer confidence and impose higher standards on developers regarding financial strength and project quality [4] - The second-hand housing market is facing significant challenges, with listing volumes in major cities like Shanghai, Chongqing, and Chengdu exceeding 150,000 units, leading to price reductions as sellers seek to close deals amid weak demand [4] - The government aims to provide 6 million units of affordable housing over the next five years, which is expected to ease housing pressure for low-income groups and divert some demand from the commercial housing market [4] Group 3: Financial Outlook - Current mortgage rates are in the range of 3.2% to 3.5%, with predictions that they may drop below 3% in 2025 to stimulate demand amid a declining market [6] - The overall trend for housing prices is expected to be "stable with a downward bias," as the market has entered a long-term adjustment phase, with significant price drops observed in cities like Zhengzhou and Tianjin [8] - For instance, in Shanghai, prices have decreased from nearly 100,000 yuan per square meter to approximately 65,000 yuan per square meter, reflecting a decline of over 30% [8]