美联储恐重蹈“政策滞后”覆辙！再不降息就晚了？

Core Viewpoint - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates, with a probability exceeding 99%, but some experts worry that the Fed may "miss the best opportunity for action" [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent inflation data has been relatively mild, leading the Fed to feel optimistic, but price declines have not yet reached the threshold for initiating rate cuts [1] - Concerns over tariffs and the Israel-Palestine conflict have raised worries about rising oil costs, adding new uncertainty to the inflation outlook [1] - The consensus for the unemployment rate by 2026 has increased from 4.3% to 4.6%, indicating a more pessimistic view of the labor market [1] Group 2: Expert Opinions - Analysts from Manulife Investment suggest that uncertainty around tariffs is clouding the outlook for rate cuts this year, and that the Fed may wait until the Jackson Hole meeting in August to provide clearer signals [2] - Simona Mocuta from State Street Global Advisors advocates for rate cuts this summer to sustain economic growth, noting that the current situation is reminiscent of the emergency rate cuts in September 2024 [2] - Mocuta emphasizes that maintaining strong consumer spending relies on a stable job market, which is crucial to avoiding recession [2]