KVB外汇：日本央行2026年购债减速，全球动荡中埋下什么隐患？

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan announced to maintain the short-term interest rate at 0.5% and revealed a significant policy shift to halve bond purchases to 200 billion yen per quarter starting from the fiscal year 2026 [1] - The decision to maintain the current bond purchase reduction path until March 2026 lays the groundwork for future monetary policy changes [1] - There is a notable internal disagreement within the Bank of Japan regarding the pace of bond purchase reductions, with committee member Naoki Tamura advocating for a continued reduction of 400 billion yen per quarter [3] Group 2 - Global risks are intensifying, with escalating Middle East conflicts increasing risk aversion and a strong dollar suppressing the yen's exchange rate [3] - The ongoing stalemate in US-Japan tariff negotiations poses additional challenges, with potential auto tariffs from the Trump administration looming [3] - The market reacted sharply to the policy announcement, with the USD/JPY exchange rate experiencing significant volatility, highlighting traders' sensitivity to the policy shift [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan's strategic divergence from the Federal Reserve is becoming apparent, with a policy review window set for June 2026 to assess the bond purchase plan [4] - Geopolitical risks and trade protectionism are creating a challenging environment for monetary policy, making the statements from the Bank of Japan's governor critical for international financial markets [4]