BlueberryMarkets蓝莓市场：金价狂飙还能持续多久？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Citigroup predicts a potential turning point for the historically rising gold prices, warning that gold prices may drop below the psychological threshold of $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, signaling the end of the current commodity market rally [1][3] - The analysis team led by Max Layton indicates that by the second half of 2026, international gold prices may return to the range of $2500 to $2700, driven by multiple factors creating downward pressure, including a decline in investment demand as risk aversion diminishes and a gradual improvement in global economic growth expectations [3] - The report highlights that the core drivers of the recent surge in gold prices were geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with a 30% increase attributed to market volatility from the Trump administration's trade policies and escalating Middle East tensions [3] Group 2 - Current spot gold prices are hovering around $3396, with Citigroup providing a 60% probability forecast that gold prices will fluctuate above $3000 in the next quarter before entering a correction phase, reflecting a reassessment of the global economic outlook [4] - The anticipated value correction in the gold market is expected to test investors' risk appetite and indicates a significant turning point as the interplay between risk demand and policy expectations evolves [4] - The report warns that the supportive factors for gold prices, such as concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves, are undergoing qualitative changes, particularly as the 2025 U.S. midterm elections approach [3]