兴业证券：承接Capex后周期产能释放和需求复苏 持续看好Opex业务景气度提升

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the semiconductor materials industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and the ongoing trend of domestic substitution, leading to growth opportunities in the sector [1][2][3] - The global semiconductor materials market is projected to reach approximately $67.5 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, following a downturn in 2023 [2] - The domestic wafer manufacturing capital expenditure remains high, which, combined with the recovery in demand, is expected to drive stable growth in materials and other operational expenditure (Opex) businesses [2][3] Group 2 - The domestic semiconductor materials market has seen significant progress in domestic substitution, with over 40% localization rates in silicon wafers, wet electronic chemicals, CMP materials, and target materials [3] - In 2024, the total revenue of selected semiconductor materials companies in China is estimated to be around 34 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20%, primarily driven by the recovery in downstream terminal demand [3] - However, the net profit for these companies is expected to decline by 35% year-on-year, largely due to losses from companies like Shanghai Silicon Industry and Li'an Micro, which are affected by intensified competition and falling silicon wafer prices [3]