今晚12点，今年第五涨！下一轮上调幅度可能超400元/吨！

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil price will be adjusted upwards, with gasoline and diesel prices increasing due to rising international crude oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of June 17, 2023, gasoline prices will increase by 260 CNY per ton, and diesel prices will rise by 255 CNY per ton, translating to an increase of 0.21 CNY per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.22 CNY for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.22 CNY for 0-octane diesel [1]. - This marks the 11th adjustment of the year, resulting in a new pricing pattern of "five increases, five decreases, and two stasis" for 2025 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - International crude oil prices have risen to around 73-78 USD per barrel, influenced by optimistic expectations regarding US-China trade negotiations and escalating tensions in the Middle East [1]. - The ongoing conflict in Israel and Palestine has heightened supply risks, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route through which 18-19 million barrels pass daily, representing about 20% of global consumption [1]. - On the demand side, the upcoming summer travel season in the US is expected to boost fuel demand, with institutions reducing recession forecasts, indicating an overall positive outlook for demand [2]. Group 3: Cost Implications - Following the price increase, the cost of filling a private vehicle's tank (approximately 50 liters) will rise by 10.5 CNY, with monthly fuel costs for a vehicle running 2,000 kilometers expected to increase by about 16.8 CNY [2]. - For the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers with a fuel consumption of 40 liters per 100 kilometers will see an increase in fuel costs of approximately 440 CNY before the next price adjustment [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing conflict in Israel and Palestine is likely to lead to a significant increase in oil prices, with the next price adjustment expected to exceed 400 CNY per ton [2]. - The next retail price adjustment window is anticipated to open on July 1, 2023, at 24:00 [2].