以伊冲突还在打，市场却已经翻篇了！

Core Insights - The recent geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have led to surprising market reactions, with gold prices falling and U.S. Treasury yields rising, indicating a "risk-on" environment [1] - Historical data suggests that oil prices often anticipate conflicts and that significant increases in oil prices are required to trigger a recession in the West [2] - The S&P 500 index typically experiences a short-term decline following geopolitical shocks but tends to recover fully within a few weeks [4] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices have decreased while U.S. Treasury yields have increased, reflecting a shift towards riskier assets [1] - The performance of stocks relative to long-term bonds has reached its strongest level since Trump's inauguration [1] - Oil prices have not surged despite the conflict, remaining significantly lower than their January peak [1] Group 2: Historical Context - Historical patterns indicate that oil prices need to double to potentially cause a recession, with current prices far below this threshold [2] - The S&P 500 index has historically shown resilience, with a median recovery time of 16 trading days after geopolitical events [4] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Experts warn against complacency in the market, highlighting the potential for tail risks, including Iran's nuclear capabilities [5] - Probability analyses suggest varying outcomes from the conflict, with a notable risk of Iran achieving nuclear armament [5] Group 4: Bitcoin's Performance - Bitcoin has demonstrated characteristics of a safe-haven asset during the crisis, outperforming gold [6][8] - The perception of Bitcoin as a strategic asset is growing, influenced by regulatory developments and institutional interest [8]