分析人士：做多债市获利的可能性更大

Core Insights - The stock index futures closed higher across the board, indicating positive market sentiment and expectations for future policy support [1] - Economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows a significant increase in retail sales, suggesting strong consumer market potential [2] - The bond market is primarily supported by favorable fundamentals, while the stock market is driven by policy expectations [4] Group 1: Stock Market Insights - Stock index futures for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 100 rose by 0.38%, 0.48%, 0.46%, and 0.72% respectively, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the equity market [1] - Analysts expect a new round of upward momentum in stock indices as the policy release window approaches [2] - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum is anticipated to announce significant financial policies, which could further influence market dynamics [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, growing by 6.1% year-on-year, surpassing both the previous value of 5.1% and the forecast of 4.9% [2] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, which is crucial for improving residents' asset balance sheets and boosting domestic demand [2] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The bond market's reaction to economic data has been relatively muted, indicating that the market had anticipated these figures [3] - The People's Bank of China conducted significant reverse repurchase operations to stabilize market liquidity amid concerns over tightening [3] - The bond market is expected to experience an upward trend post mid-month tax period, with government bonds likely to test previous highs [4]