Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict in Iran has heightened market tensions, particularly concerning the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 18 to 19 million barrels of oil pass daily, accounting for nearly 20% of global consumption [1] Group 1: Historical Context of Strait of Hormuz - The closest Iran has come to effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz was during the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988, particularly during the "Tanker War" phase [2] - Iran's military actions in the 1980s caused "limited and short-term" disruptions to the Strait, but a complete closure was never achieved [3] Group 2: Recent Threats and Responses - Since the 2000s, Iran has frequently threatened to block the Strait in response to Western sanctions and regional tensions, notably during the peak of the Iran nuclear crisis in 2008 and the expanded oil sanctions in 2011-2012 [4][5] - Despite these threats, Iran has not executed a full blockade, although its naval forces possess capabilities to disrupt shipping [5] Group 3: Military Actions and International Reactions - Iran has attempted to interfere with shipping in the Strait through tactics such as laying mines and attacking oil tankers from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, which caused significant disruptions without fully closing the waterway [6] - The U.S. initiated "Operation Earnest Will" in 1987 to protect Kuwaiti vessels, maintaining open sea lanes despite Iranian actions [6] Group 4: Strategic Considerations Against Full Blockade - Iran has the tactical capability to block the Strait, including strong mine-laying abilities, armed speedboat operations, and coastal missile systems [9] - However, the strategic risks of a full blockade are substantial, as it would harm Iran's own oil exports, provoke military responses from the U.S. Fifth Fleet, and lead to international isolation and potential military conflict [9]
历史上,伊朗是否真正封锁过霍尔木兹海峡?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-06-17 08:45