程实：顶住压力，向新而生——2025年下半年中国经济展望

Economic Growth and Quality Improvement - In 2025, China's economy is expected to show stable growth and quality improvement, driven by effective macro policies and structural optimization [1] - Consumption is identified as a key engine for economic recovery, with a significant increase in its contribution to GDP growth [1][4] - High-tech industry investment is rapidly increasing, becoming a core driver of investment growth [1] Consumer Market Recovery - The consumer market is showing steady recovery, with retail sales of consumer goods growing by 5% year-on-year from January to May 2025, an acceleration of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous months [2] - Service consumption, particularly in tourism and entertainment, is experiencing robust growth, with sales of upgraded goods like jewelry increasing by over 20% year-on-year in May [2][3] Structural Changes in Consumption - There is a clear trend of consumption structure upgrading, with a shift towards high-value goods and the emergence of new consumption models [3] - Policies are being implemented to enhance consumer capacity and improve the consumption environment, which is expected to further bolster consumer confidence [3] Future Consumption Outlook - In the second half of 2025, consumer spending is anticipated to grow more steadily, supported by stable employment and rising incomes [4] - The contribution of consumption to GDP growth is projected to exceed 60%, solidifying its role as the main driver of economic growth [4] Industrial Growth and Investment - In May 2025, industrial value-added output grew by 5.8%, with significant increases in equipment manufacturing (9.0%) and high-tech manufacturing (8.6%) [7] - Fixed asset investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with a notable 17.3% rise in equipment investment, indicating a shift towards new quality productivity [7][8] Export Market Dynamics - China's export structure is diversifying, with a growing focus on high-tech and green industries, which enhances resilience against external uncertainties [11] - The share of exports to emerging markets is increasing, while reliance on traditional markets like the U.S. is decreasing, reflecting a successful diversification strategy [11][13] Policy Framework and Economic Stability - Fiscal policy is set to increase the deficit target to 4.0% in 2025, aiming to stabilize expectations and boost confidence in the economy [14] - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts and targeted reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic growth [17]