无需担心伊以冲突？IEA最新预测：今年石油供应将大大超过需求！

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil supply will remain ample in 2025, provided there are no severe disruptions in Middle Eastern crude oil supply [1][2] - Global oil production is expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to 104.9 million bpd by 2025, while demand is forecasted at 103.8 million bpd, resulting in a supply surplus of 1.1 million bpd [1] - The increase in supply is driven by OPEC+ reversing previous production cuts and non-OPEC+ producers expected to increase output by an average of 1.4 million bpd throughout the year [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The IEA has revised down its oil consumption growth forecast for this year to 720,000 bpd, lower than the previous estimate of 740,000 bpd, primarily due to weak demand in the United States [1] - Since February, global oil inventories have been increasing by an average of 1 million barrels per day, with a significant rise of 93 million barrels in May alone [1] Geopolitical Context - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has caused oil price volatility and raised concerns about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route [2] - Despite the geopolitical tensions, the IEA reports that Iranian oil flows have not been affected, and there is uncertainty regarding the impact on production from the South Pars gas field [3] Long-term Outlook - The IEA anticipates that global oil demand will peak in 2027, driven by the surge in electric vehicle sales, ongoing high-speed rail construction, and the adoption of natural gas trucks [3] - In its 2030 outlook, the IEA projects that global oil demand will only increase by 2.5 million bpd from 2024 to 2030, reaching a plateau of 105.5 million bpd by the end of the decade, while global production capacity is expected to rise by over 5 million bpd to 114.7 million bpd [3]