地缘政治风险升温，央行决议临近

Core Viewpoint - Global financial markets are cautious as investors weigh geopolitical tensions and central bank decisions, reflecting a delicate balance between risk appetite and defensive strategies [1] Market Overview - Wall Street stock index futures experienced a slight decline, while European markets remained flat. Asian markets opened higher but failed to sustain gains due to shifting focus on geopolitical issues and policy signals [2] - The US dollar strengthened slightly against major currencies, driven by increased safe-haven flows amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and expectations surrounding upcoming Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy decisions [2] Central Bank Focus - The upcoming meetings of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) are pivotal, with expectations that the BOJ will maintain its current interest rates while investors look for clues on potential policy tightening [3] - The Fed's meeting is anticipated to result in a decision to keep rates unchanged, bolstered by recent CPI and employment data. However, market attention is also on Chairman Powell's guidance regarding future rate cuts, which could begin as early as September [3] Geopolitical Risks - Tensions between the US and Iran escalated following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure, prompting the US to order the evacuation of personnel from Tehran [4] - China has also urged its citizens to leave Israel, highlighting the potential for the situation to escalate further [5] - Despite the seriousness of the situation, market reactions have been relatively muted, as investors expect diplomatic efforts to prevent a full-scale conflict [6] USD/JPY Analysis - The USD/JPY pair is currently in a narrow consolidation range below the 145 level, with market participants awaiting clearer policy signals from central banks to determine the next direction [7] - Key drivers include potential signals from the BOJ regarding policy tightening, which could lead to a stronger yen, and any hawkish signals from the Fed that might support the dollar [9]