中东战火重燃市场忧虑！小摩率先撤回美股看涨立场

Group 1 - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has heightened market concerns regarding inflation and the timing of interest rate cuts in the U.S., leading at least one Wall Street firm to adopt a cautious outlook on the prospects for new stock market highs [1] - Morgan Stanley's trading department has abandoned its tactical bullish stance on the U.S. stock market due to rising risks and an increased likelihood of market pullbacks, despite the S&P 500 index rising on expectations that the conflict between Iran and Israel will not escalate into a full-scale war [1] - The S&P 500 index has rebounded 21% since its April low, but signs indicate that the risk appetite driving this rebound is encountering resistance, with the index hovering around the 6000-point mark and the "fear index" VIX remaining below 20, reflecting ongoing investor concerns about geopolitical and other risks [1] Group 2 - Market strategists, including Matt Maley from Miller Tabak, share a similar view that even if the S&P 500 challenges historical highs, the downside risks currently outweigh the upside potential, especially given the index is only 1.8% away from its peak [3] - The U.S. stock market faces multiple headwinds amid escalating Middle Eastern conflicts, with economic growth slowing and earnings expectations being continuously revised downward, compounded by geopolitical uncertainties [3] - Concerns about overvaluation are becoming evident, as the S&P 500 index has stagnated over the past five trading days, showing little reaction to positive consumer and producer price index reports from the previous week [3] Group 3 - Investors are pricing in geopolitical benefits based on a valuation level exceeding 23 times the expected earnings for 2025, yet there is a lack of substantial evidence to support this pricing [4]