关税阴霾下，企业并购按下暂停键，交易员却迎来春天

Group 1: Market Overview - The trade war initiated by Trump is creating a dual impact on Wall Street, leading to contrasting performance in trading and investment banking sectors [1] - Announced M&A deal value has increased by 21% year-over-year, but the number of deals has decreased by 22% [3] - The IPO market is also struggling, with both deal value and number declining by over 10% [3] Group 2: Trading Business Performance - Trading desks are benefiting from market volatility, with stock trading expected to outperform fixed income trading [1][2] - Morgan Stanley's CEO reported strong performance in trading, particularly in equities, as the S&P 500 index rises [1] - Bank of America anticipates mid-to-high single-digit percentage growth in trading revenue [1] Group 3: Investment Banking Challenges - Investment banking is facing a comprehensive decline, with Bank of America projecting a 25% decrease in investment banking revenue year-over-year [3] - There is a notable divergence between the value and number of transactions, indicating a decrease in overall trading activity despite large deals still progressing [3] - Delays in transactions are expected to pressure banking performance, with predictions of a moderate decline in investment banking fees [3]