5月宏观数据喜忧参半：消费等数据持续改善，仍需警惕出口扰动、透支效应等问题

Economic Overview - In May, the overall economic operation showed a stable and progressive development trend, with key indicators such as industrial added value, service production index, and retail sales of consumer goods maintaining stable growth [2][3] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight year-on-year decline, influenced by international factors and a drop in some food prices, while the core CPI excluding food and energy showed an expanded increase [2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for enterprises above designated size grew by 5.8% year-on-year in May, despite a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the previous value, indicating robust growth [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector's added value increased by 9%, contributing 54.3% to industrial production, while high-tech manufacturing added value rose by 8.6% [3] - The production of new energy vehicles and solar batteries grew by 31.7% and 27.8%, respectively, indicating sustained high growth in these sectors [3] Trade Dynamics - In May, China's total goods import and export value increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 6.3% [5] - Exports to the US declined, while trade with ASEAN and Belt and Road countries continued to grow, highlighting the resilience of China's economic scale and industrial system [5] - The export of electromechanical products increased by 9.3%, accounting for 60% of total exports, while labor-intensive product exports slowed down [5] Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, driven by policies promoting consumption [6] - The investment in equipment and tools saw a growth of 17.3% in the first five months, contributing 63.6% to overall investment growth [6] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy significantly boosted sales in related sectors, although some regions showed signs of consumption overextension [6] Investment Trends - Real estate investment continued to drag down the economy, with a year-on-year decline of 10.7% in the first five months [7] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.7%, below market expectations, with infrastructure investment remaining strong due to accelerated issuance of special bonds [7][8] - Manufacturing investment maintained a high growth rate of 8.5%, supported by favorable policies and better-than-expected export conditions [7][8] Government Policy and Support - By the end of May, the issuance of new local government special bonds exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the same period last year, reaching 37% of the government work report target [8] - The macroeconomic operation is in a gradual recovery phase, with investment acting as a counter-cyclical variable to support the economy, particularly in broad infrastructure investment [8]