分析人士：伊以冲突对航运市场影响有限

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel has increased market uncertainty, particularly affecting the shipping and oil markets, with concerns about the potential spillover effects on container shipping routes [1] Group 1: Direct and Indirect Impacts on Shipping - The direct impact of the Iran-Israel conflict on container shipping primarily affects Middle Eastern routes, with a potential short-term risk premium due to geopolitical tensions; however, the likelihood of this conflict causing significant price increases in other major shipping routes is low [1] - The indirect impact includes rising fuel costs, with some shipping companies imposing additional fees around $300 per large container due to increased oil prices; the acceptance of these fees by downstream customers will depend on the actual supply and demand conditions on these routes [1][2] - The shipping companies typically hedge against oil price fluctuations, which can mitigate the risks associated with cost changes [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Operational Efficiency - The conflict may influence the sentiment surrounding the container shipping index (Euro routes), but its actual impact on the spot transportation of Asia-Europe container routes is limited [2] - Concerns exist regarding the efficiency of vessels, as Iranian-supported groups may increase attacks on Israeli commercial ships, potentially leading to delays in the resumption of shipping through the Red Sea [2] - If the conflict continues, shipping companies may impose fuel surcharges due to sustained high oil prices [2] Group 3: Risk Assessment and Routing Changes - The primary shipping routes for East-West trade currently involve ports in China, Southeast Asia, and Europe, with vessels now opting to bypass the Red Sea and navigate around the Cape of Good Hope, which reduces the risk of attacks [3] - The greatest risk may lie with container ships operating on Middle Eastern routes, particularly those associated with Israel, which could become targets; however, the limited scale of these routes means they are unlikely to significantly affect main shipping route prices [3] - In the event of rising prices on Middle Eastern routes, there may be opportunities for these routes to absorb excess capacity from declining prices on US routes, potentially stabilizing the market [3]