日本国债“海啸”还将持续吗

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing significant turmoil, with yields on bonds exceeding 20 years reaching historical highs, raising concerns about the impact on government finances and potential risks to the real economy [1][2]. Group 1: Government Bond Market Dynamics - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been a major buyer of government bonds, holding over 559 trillion yen, which accounts for 52% of the issuance as of the end of 2024 [1]. - Following the appointment of Kazuo Ueda as BOJ governor, the bank has begun to normalize its monetary policy, reducing bond purchases by 4 trillion yen each quarter since July of the previous year [1]. - Domestic investors, including commercial banks, pension funds, and life insurance companies, are constrained in their ability to purchase bonds due to regulatory and capital requirements, leading to further declines in bond prices and rising yields [2][3]. Group 2: International Investor Sentiment - International investors are increasingly attracted to Japanese government bonds, believing that yields will continue to rise due to predictions of worsening fiscal conditions in Japan [2][3]. - The trading volume of international investors in the Japanese bond market has reached 50% of total trading volume, indicating strong foreign interest [3]. - The yield on Japanese bonds purchased with dollar-denominated risk hedging has reached 7%, making them an attractive option in global duration strategies [3]. Group 3: Implications for Financial Institutions - Rising bond yields may benefit banks in terms of interest income but could also lead to paper losses and increased financing costs, negatively impacting the real economy [3][4]. - The lack of sufficient domestic buyers for government bonds poses sustainability challenges for the Japanese government's fiscal operations [3][4]. Group 4: BOJ's Policy Response - The BOJ has maintained its policy rate at 0.5% and decided to continue reducing long-term bond purchases, adjusting the quarterly reduction from 4 trillion yen to 2 trillion yen starting in April 2026 [4][5]. - The BOJ's recent decisions have not effectively addressed the shortage of domestic buyers and are unlikely to curb the profit-taking actions of international investors [4][5]. - Following the BOJ's decisions, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 1.16% to 1.197%, reflecting market reactions to the policy [5].