邹志强：以伊冲突会引发一场石油危机吗？

Group 1 - The conflict between Israel and Iran is escalating, impacting the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and creating new shocks to the international energy market, which could affect global supply chains and economic growth [1] - Historical conflicts in the Middle East have led to significant volatility in global energy markets, and the current situation is expected to lead to a period of turbulence in international oil prices [1][2] - Iran's oil production remains over 3 million barrels per day, with exports around 2 million barrels per day, but any disruption due to the conflict could significantly impact international energy supply [2] Group 2 - The potential impact of the conflict on other Gulf oil-producing countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, is noteworthy, although they have not yet been directly affected [3] - Iraq's security situation is critical, as it lies in the path of the conflict, and any escalation could disrupt its oil production [3] - The possibility of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz is a significant variable that could lead to a spike in international oil prices, although Iran is unlikely to take such action unless absolutely necessary [4] Group 3 - The overall impact of the conflict on Iran's oil exports is manageable, as other OPEC+ countries have the capacity to compensate for any potential shortfall [5] - The current global oil demand is slowing, and supply remains relatively ample, which may buffer the effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4][5] - The ongoing conflict poses risks of escalation, including potential Iranian attacks on U.S. military bases and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to further instability in the international energy market [5]