美国、中东与中国：油价、黄金走势

Geopolitical and Economic Impact - The recent Israel-Iran conflict has significant implications for geopolitical and economic dynamics in the Middle East, with the U.S. actively increasing its influence in the region [1] - The conflict has led to a rise in oil prices, with prices moving from $40-$50 during Trump's presidency to $75-$85 under Biden, yet Middle Eastern oil-producing countries are hesitant to increase production due to uncertainties about future demand [2][4] Oil Market Dynamics - Trump's administration aimed to lower oil prices to alleviate inflation, which was achieved through increased U.S. energy supply, leading to a drop in oil prices from around $78 to below $60 [4][6] - The U.S. strategy includes maintaining the dominance of the U.S. dollar in oil transactions, countering China's proposal to use the yuan for energy trade, which poses a threat to U.S. hegemony [6][12] Military and Strategic Movements - The U.S. military has increased its presence in the Middle East, with aircraft and naval forces being deployed to support Israel and deter Iran, indicating a shift from economic to geopolitical concerns [9][12] - Israel's military actions against Iran are supported by the U.S., which seeks to maintain control over the region and its oil resources [9][18] Iran's Position and Response - Iran's military capabilities have been significantly weakened, leading to a lack of resolve in retaliation, and the country is seeking to de-escalate tensions through intermediaries [16][18] - The internal situation in Iran is precarious, with leadership showing signs of compromise, which may affect the duration and intensity of the conflict [16][18] Future Market Predictions - Oil prices are expected to rise temporarily due to the conflict but may stabilize or decrease if a resolution is reached with Iran, while gold prices are predicted to decline in the coming years [18]