伊以冲突下的油价迷局：短期见顶与长期供需重构现

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical events, particularly the Iran-Israel conflict, on oil prices, suggesting that such conflicts often present selling opportunities rather than sustained price increases due to controlled supply and high inventory levels [1][2][10]. Geopolitical Events and Oil Prices - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the frequency and intensity of geopolitical events have increased, leading to temporary spikes in oil prices that are often followed by declines [1][2]. - The recent Iran-Israel conflict has seen oil prices rise from approximately $65 per barrel to around $74 per barrel, indicating a nearly $10 increase, but future price increases are expected to be limited to around $5 [2][10]. Supply Chain Considerations - The potential for oil price spikes is significantly tied to the stability of the Strait of Hormuz; however, the likelihood of Iran actually blocking this critical shipping route is considered low [3][7][9]. - Historical context shows that Iran has never successfully blocked the Strait of Hormuz despite various geopolitical tensions, suggesting that threats are often rhetorical rather than actionable [8][9]. Market Dynamics - Current market conditions indicate a supply surplus, with global oil inventories remaining above seasonal averages, which is expected to continue due to increased production from OPEC+ and other regions [10][11]. - Demand for oil is projected to decline, particularly in China, which is moving towards electrification and reducing reliance on fossil fuels [11][14]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for oil prices remains bullish, driven by the limited capacity for new upstream investments in fossil fuels, which are expected to decline in the coming years [15][16]. - The article concludes that as long as the geopolitical situation remains stable, oil market volatility will likely be contained, with prices reflecting the underlying supply-demand imbalance [16].