永安期货：焦炭关注基差修复的交易性机会

Core Viewpoint - The price of Shanxi premium first-grade coke has dropped nearly 30% from 1650 RMB/ton to around 1200 RMB/ton since the beginning of the year, reflecting a weak profit environment in the coking industry [1] Group 1: Price and Production Dynamics - Domestic coke production has remained stable, with steel mills and independent coking enterprises maintaining a daily output of 1.16 to 1.21 million tons, aligning with the industry's profit levels [1] - The average profit per ton of coke for coking plants is currently -28.6 RMB, indicating ongoing financial strain [1] - Upstream coking coal costs are declining, with many mines adopting a "produce more to reduce losses" strategy, leading to record low spot prices for coking coal [1] Group 2: Demand and Inventory Pressure - The pessimistic outlook for the steel industry is a key factor suppressing coke prices, with a projected decrease in pig iron production due to a rumored target of reducing crude steel output by 50 million tons [1][2] - To achieve a balance in coke supply and demand, a reduction of 13.3 million tons in coke production is necessary in the second half of the year, requiring daily average production to fall below 1.15 million tons [2] - Despite a decrease in total coke inventory from previous highs, the absolute inventory levels at steel mills and coking plants remain significantly higher than in previous years, leading to reduced purchasing willingness from steel mills [2] Group 3: Global Market and Export Dynamics - Global steel demand remained flat in the first half of 2025, with a 2.57% decline in pig iron production outside of China, while overseas coal and coke demand is weak [3] - India's strict coke import quota has forced domestic buyers to reduce coke imports and increase coking coal imports, further impacting global supply dynamics [3] - The price of overseas coking coal has dropped to historical lows due to increased supply pressure from new coking capacity in Indonesia [3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategy - Current increases in coke prices are viewed as a temporary rebound rather than a trend reversal, driven by a correction in market expectations [4] - A sustainable trend reversal requires effective implementation of production reduction policies and stable demand for pig iron [4] - Short-term trading opportunities may arise from basis recovery and monthly spread convergence, but a clear policy direction is needed for long-term bullish strategies [4]