焦煤供应过剩格局暂未扭转

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of coking coal futures has been a downward trajectory in 2023, with a brief rebound observed after June 4, 2023, when the main contract recorded a 7.19% increase, marking the highest single-day rise of the year [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The decline in coking coal futures is attributed to dual pressures from both supply and demand. On the supply side, domestic coking coal production is expected to increase in 2025 compared to 2024, despite a slight decrease in import volumes. Overall supply remains on an upward trend [1]. - Demand for black metals is facing multiple pressures, with insufficient support from traditional sectors such as real estate and infrastructure. Additionally, fluctuations in international trade, particularly U.S. tariff policies, have dampened export and investment confidence [1][2]. Recent Market Developments - The first five months of the year saw a continuous decline in coking coal prices due to accumulating negative factors. However, recent shifts in market sentiment have been influenced by supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, particularly in U.S.-China relations [2]. - As of June 12, 2023, the average daily production of coking coal from 523 mines in China was 741,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 4,000 tons per day compared to the previous week and a year-on-year decline of 18,000 tons per day [3]. Geopolitical Factors - The resignation of the Mongolian Prime Minister on June 3, 2023, raised concerns about the stability of coal imports from Mongolia. However, the reliance on long-term contracts and limited auction volumes suggest that the short-term decline in Mongolian coal imports may be limited [4]. - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has led to fluctuations in oil prices, which may indirectly affect the coking coal market. Despite initial spikes, oil prices have since retreated, indicating that global investors are cautious about the long-term impact of geopolitical tensions [5]. Future Outlook - The combination of safety production measures and environmental regulations has led to a temporary contraction in domestic coking coal production, while the price of imported coal remains suppressed. This has alleviated some pessimistic expectations regarding the coking coal market [6]. - Despite recent positive developments, the long-term oversupply situation in the coking coal market has not been fully resolved. The potential for increased production after the safety production month could lead to further price pressures [6].