分析人士：高库存压制双焦价格

Group 1 - Coking coal and coke prices have been experiencing a rebound since June, with the current increase viewed as a corrective rebound rather than a trend reversal [1][2] - The rebound in coking coal prices occurred in two phases: the first phase was driven by a correction in basis, while the second phase was influenced by rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [1] - The current inventory levels indicate a significant increase in coal stockpiles, with national raw coal inventory rising to 6.8489 million tons, a 105% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Iron and steel production remains high, but typically sees a seasonal decline in June and July, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream steel companies [2] - As of June 13, coking coal inventories at steel mills increased slightly, while coke inventories at coking enterprises decreased, indicating a mixed inventory situation [2] - Despite a slight decrease in supply due to environmental inspections, the overall supply situation remains stable, and any potential changes in supply are expected to be temporary [2][3] Group 3 - Coke prices have stabilized after a third round of price reductions, but steel mills are cautious in their raw material purchases, leading to a continuous accumulation of inventory [3] - Current market conditions suggest that while coking coal prices may continue to face downward pressure, the high level of iron and steel production provides some support for coking prices [2][3]