70城房价变化公布，房贷利率下调10基点，楼市会向上吗？

Core Viewpoint - The housing market in 70 major cities shows a stagnant trend in prices, with a recent 10 basis point reduction in the five-year LPR mortgage rate from 3.6% to 3.5%, which may lower the cost of home buying but has not significantly increased buyer confidence [1][4][5]. Group 1: Housing Price Trends - In first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, there are mixed results with Shanghai seeing a 0.5% increase and Guangzhou a 0.2% decrease, indicating a potential stabilization in housing prices [5][10]. - The overall trend in major cities shows both increases and decreases in housing prices, but the rate of decline is narrowing while the rate of increase is expanding, suggesting a possible stabilization [5][9]. Group 2: Buyer Sentiment and Economic Factors - A significant portion of surveyed users expressed uncertainty about purchasing homes, with many stating that changes in mortgage rates do not affect their decisions, indicating a saturated market and declining demand for first-time buyers [4][9]. - The disposable income growth rate for urban residents has decreased from 8.9% in 2019 to 4.5% in 2024, with 28% of households having a mortgage-to-income ratio exceeding 50%, contributing to cautious buyer sentiment [4][5]. Group 3: Future Market Predictions - Predictions suggest that first-tier cities may see stable or rising prices due to strong economic fundamentals and population attraction, while second-tier cities will experience significant price differentiation based on economic strength and population trends [10][11]. - Third and fourth-tier cities are expected to continue adjusting downward in prices, although the reduction in mortgage rates may mitigate the extent of these declines [10][11].