Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 27/22x for those years. The target price is raised by 55% to HKD 85, indicating a 15% upside potential based on the company's positive fundamentals and improved sector valuation [1]. Company Status - CICC recently invited the company to a mid-term strategy meeting to discuss its operational status and development strategy. The company’s main brand, Han Shu, has optimized its Douyin channel live-streaming structure, with rapid growth in external channels. The second-tier products and categories are showing good growth trends, while the small brand Newpage maintains high growth and profitability. The optimization of channels and brand structure is expected to enhance the company's overall profitability [2]. Channel and Product Performance - Han Shu's Douyin channel has seen a GMV increase of 13% year-on-year in May, maintaining its position as the top beauty brand on Douyin. The optimization of live-streaming structure has led to a 71% year-on-year increase in self-broadcasting and product card GMV. The overall GMV for Han Shu on Douyin from May 1 to June 14 increased by 18% year-on-year, with significant growth in Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, and other external channels [3]. - The second-tier product, the White Waist series, has increased its GMV share to 27% in May, with high-margin lines and makeup series contributing over 10% each. The hair care category has also started to gain traction, indicating a richening product matrix [3]. Brand Matrix and New Product Launches - The multi-brand matrix is becoming more complete, with Newpage continuing its high growth trend, showing a GMV increase of 157% year-on-year from January to May 2025. The brand's profit margin is significantly higher than the company's overall margin. The company plans to launch new brands in the second half of the year, including NAN Beauty and the IP collaboration with the baby care brand Bread Superhero, which is expected to open a new growth curve [4]. Talent and Organizational Development - The company is continuously optimizing its organizational structure and strengthening its talent pool, having recently recruited a former Tmall beauty general manager to partner with NAN Beauty. The company plans to follow a "2+2+2" strategy over the next three years, focusing on skincare, hair care, and maternal and infant products, with six major brands. The long-term growth potential as a multi-category, multi-brand cosmetics group is viewed positively [5].
中金：维持上美股份(02145)跑赢行业评级 上调目标价至85港元