Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have reduced their holdings in Shangmei Cosmetics Co., Ltd. (02145.HK), indicating a trend of net selling over recent trading days [1] Group 1: Shareholding Changes - On October 22, southbound funds reduced their holdings by 12,100 shares, marking a decrease of 0.03% [2] - Over the past five trading days, there have been four days of net selling, totaling a reduction of 742,100 shares [1][2] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 12 days of net selling, with a cumulative reduction of 1,188,800 shares [1] Group 2: Current Holdings - As of now, southbound funds hold 41,123,600 shares of Shangmei Cosmetics, which represents 19.92% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1][2] Group 3: Company Overview - Shangmei Cosmetics Co., Ltd. primarily engages in the production and sale of cosmetics, with key brands including "Han Shu," "Yi Ye Zi," and "Red Elephant" [2] - The company's products are utilized for skincare and maternal and infant care, sold through both online and offline channels [2] - The company mainly operates in the domestic market [2]

上美股份（02145）深度研究 数据为锚&运营驱动，向多品牌领先集 团迈进 2025 年 10 月 22 日 【投资要点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 买入（上调） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：刘嘉仁 证书编号：S1160524090001 相对指数表现 -30% 12% 54% 96% 138% 180% 2024/10 2025/4 2025/10 上美股份 恒生指数 | 基本数据 | | --- | | 总市值（百万港元） | 37,123.49 | | --- | --- | | 流通市值（百万港元） | 19,242.56 | | 52 周最高/最低（港元） 102.40/29.55 | | | 52 周最高/最低（PE） | 46.46/14.02 | | 52 周最高/最低（PB） | 16.56/5.10 | | 52 周涨幅（%） | 215.57 | | 52 周换手率（%） | 62.96 | 注：数据更新日期截止 2025 年 10 月 21 日 相关研究 《业绩位于预告上沿，未来主品牌+小品牌 有望提供多元增长驱动》 2025.04.14 公 司 研 究 / 美 容 护 理 / 证 券 ...

Core Insights - Black Aura, a new fragrance brand founded by former Proya CMO Ye Wei, has officially launched, focusing on functional fragrance products for daily life [1][5] - The brand's first product line includes bath oils, body oils, and scented soaps, with the best-selling item being the scented repair bath oil, which has sold over 100 units [1][3] - The emergence of Black Aura marks a trend in the domestic beauty market, with 16 new domestic beauty brands launched this year, half of which focus on skincare [3][10] Group 1: Brand Launch and Market Positioning - Black Aura is the first domestic brand to enter the fragrance market this year, indicating a growing interest in this segment among local brands [3] - The brand aims to redefine the application of fragrance in daily life, emphasizing its functional benefits across various scenarios [5][7] - The brand's development principle is to prioritize functionality in fragrance products, aiming to provide practical value alongside artistic and emotional aspects [7][12] Group 2: Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - The skincare segment is witnessing significant growth, with many new brands focusing on efficacy-driven products, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences [10][12] - Major companies are expanding their brand portfolios, with a notable trend towards efficacy skincare, indicating a strategic focus on high-tech barriers and strong user loyalty [10][12] - The functional makeup market is also evolving, with brands developing products that cater to specific scenarios, such as outdoor and sports activities [11][12] Group 3: Consumer Insights and Future Opportunities - The beauty industry is entering a phase of value return and precise innovation, where companies are focusing on niche markets rather than broad offerings [12] - Identifying and meeting unmet advanced consumer needs will be crucial for brands to carve out new growth opportunities in a seemingly saturated market [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a decline in new consumption concept stocks, with several companies experiencing significant drops in their stock prices [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Wei Long Mei Wei (卫龙美味) fell by 6.72%, with a latest price of 12.220 and a market capitalization of 29.709 billion [2]. - Bluestone (布鲁可) decreased by 5.91%, priced at 97.950, with a total market value of 24.37 billion [2]. - Naixue's Tea (奈雪的茶) dropped by 5.65%, trading at 1.170, and has a market cap of 1.995 billion [2]. - Hu Shang A Yi (沪上阿姨) saw a decline of 5.57%, with a price of 111.900 and a market capitalization of 11.772 billion [2]. - Miniso (名创优品) decreased by 5.51%, priced at 41.880, with a total market value of 51.164 billion [2]. - Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) fell by 5.14%, trading at 273.400, with a market cap of 367.161 billion [2]. - XPeng Motors (小鹏汽车-W) decreased by 4.77%, with a latest price of 78.850 and a market capitalization of 150.328 billion [2]. - Mixue Group (密雪集团) dropped by 4.68%, priced at 423.400, with a market cap of 160.731 billion [2]. - Gu Ming (古茗) saw a decline of 4.66%, trading at 24.120, with a total market value of 57.362 billion [2]. - Shangmei Co., Ltd. (上美股份) decreased by 4.74%, with a price of 95.550 and a market capitalization of 38.039 billion [2].

Core Insights - The announcement of Jackson Wang as the global brand ambassador enhances the international positioning of the brand, leveraging his strong global fanbase and previous collaborations with high-end brands like Armani [1] - The company has a robust strategy for the Double Eleven sales event, focusing on profit and core products, with significant sales driven by collaborations with popular influencers [1][2] - The company is building a strong competitive moat through brand establishment, talent acquisition, resource procurement, and supply chain capabilities, aiming for long-term growth [2] Brand and Market Strategy - The company has optimized its product structure, achieving an online GMV of 4.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with significant sales from various product lines [2] - Plans for launching three new brands in 2025 and expanding into multiple categories and IP brands are in place, supporting a revenue target of 30 billion yuan by 2030 [2] - The company is pursuing a global expansion strategy, with initial investments of 300 million yuan in Southeast Asia and plans to enter North America and Europe [2] Financial Projections - The company expects a steady increase in net profit, projecting 1.149 billion yuan, 1.496 billion yuan, and 1.806 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 32, 25, and 21 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guoshin Securities has given a "better than market" rating to Shangmei Co., predicting net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.107 billion, 1.388 billion, and 1.702 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with EPS of 2.78, 3.49, and 4.27 yuan per share respectively, and a target price range of 104.5-120.9 HKD per share [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company is positioned as a leading domestic beauty brand, leveraging inclusive mechanisms, in-depth R&D, and diverse channels to solidify its performance base through its main brand, Han Shu, which has expanded its product categories and achieved breakthroughs with popular products [1][2] - The main brand Han Shu has achieved significant sales with its Hongman Waist set, ranking first on Douyin's beauty list for eight consecutive months in 2023, and has launched the X Peptide cream to achieve a breakthrough in single product sales [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The cosmetics industry has entered a phase of stable growth post-pandemic, with diminishing channel benefits and increasing competition from new brands, leading to a shortened growth lifecycle for single products [1] - Platform-based operational capabilities are crucial for beauty companies to overcome growth bottlenecks, allowing them to adapt to market changes and build a sustainable multi-brand and multi-category business matrix [1] Group 3: Multi-Brand Strategy - The company has developed reusable foundational capabilities in channels, R&D, and marketing, resulting in a platform-based development approach with multiple categories and brands [2] - The company has successfully penetrated niche markets with its multi-brand strategy, including high-end maternal and infant products, anti-hair loss care, and sensitive skin products, contributing to a diverse growth curve [2]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities has given a "better than market" rating to Shangmei Co., predicting net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.107 billion, 1.388 billion, and 1.702 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with EPS of 2.78, 3.49, and 4.27 yuan per share respectively, and a target price of 104.5-120.9 HKD per share [1] Company Summary - Shangmei Co. is positioned as a leading domestic beauty brand, leveraging inclusive mechanisms, in-depth R&D, and diverse channels to solidify its performance base through its main brand, Han Shu, which has expanded its product categories and achieved significant sales through bundled offerings [1] - The company has developed reusable foundational capabilities in channels, R&D, and marketing, leading to a platform-based development model with multiple categories and brands [2] - The main brand Han Shu has achieved breakthroughs with products like the Hongman Waist Set and X Peptide Cream, while also expanding into hair care, men's products, and cosmetics [2] Industry Summary - The cosmetics industry has entered a stable growth phase post-pandemic, with diminishing channel benefits and increasing competition from new brands, resulting in shorter product growth life cycles [1] - Platform-based operational capabilities are crucial for beauty companies to overcome growth bottlenecks, allowing them to adapt to market changes and build a sustainable multi-brand and multi-category business matrix [1] - Companies like Shanghai Jahwa, Proya, and currently Shangmei have successfully established platform systems to achieve sustainable growth through industry fluctuations [1]

Group 1: Heart Disease Medical Devices - Haitong International maintains an "outperform" rating for Xintai Medical, with a target price of HKD 28.94, highlighting its leadership in congenital heart disease intervention devices and a projected revenue growth of 32.4% year-on-year for H1 2025 [1] Group 2: Express Delivery Services - CITIC Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Jitu Express, noting a 23.1% year-on-year increase in parcel volume in Q3, with Southeast Asia's growth rate reaching 78.7%, driven by cost and efficiency advantages [2] - Shenwan Hongyuan also maintains an "accumulate" rating for Jitu Express, reporting a market share increase to 32.8% and a recovery in domestic express delivery prices, despite a downward revision in profit forecasts [3] Group 3: Healthcare and Medical Services - CITIC Jiantou maintains a "buy" rating for China Resources Medical, indicating that while H1 2025 performance may be pressured by declining average medical insurance fees, the company holds a solid regional leadership position [4] - CITIC Jiantou also maintains a "buy" rating for Weitai Medical, projecting a 63.1% year-on-year revenue growth for H1 2025, with significant narrowing of losses and potential for breakeven by year-end [5] Group 4: Consumer Goods and Retail - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Shangmei Co., with a target price of HKD 120.9, emphasizing strong growth in net profit at a compound annual growth rate of 130% from 2022 to 2024 [6] - Huaxin Securities maintains an "accumulate" rating for Nayuki Tea, benefiting from demand catalyzed by Meituan's delivery subsidies and seasonal effects, with improved profitability through product innovation [7] - Huaxin Securities also maintains a "buy" rating for Wugu Mofang, reporting a 14% revenue growth and an 18% net profit increase for H1 2025, driven by strong performance in offline channels [8] Group 5: Food and Beverage - Guangda Securities maintains an "accumulate" rating for Xiaocaiyuan, noting its position as a leading casual dining chain with a customer price range of HKD 50-70, and plans to expand to 1,000 stores by the end of 2026 [10] - Xibu Securities initiates coverage on China Resources Beverages with an "accumulate" rating and a target price of HKD 15, highlighting a market share of 32.7% and improvements in gross margin through increased self-production [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company is building long-term advantages through multi-brand synergy, channel optimization, and increased R&D investment, with strategic implementation showing continuous results [1] Group 1: Brand Strategy and Global Expansion - The company announced Jackson Wang as the global brand ambassador, enhancing its high-end image and international presence [2] - The company has signed popular stars like Ding Yuxi and Tian Xunying, with Tian's first-day sales reaching 50-60 million, indicating strong consumer purchasing power [2] Group 2: Sales Strategy and Product Focus - The company is focusing on profit and core products during the Double Eleven sales event, promoting the X Peptide high-end series and the Hongyun makeup series [3] - The X Peptide series benefits from Jackson Wang's endorsement, while the Hongyun series aligns with the festive season, potentially boosting the makeup segment [3] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The company has established a strong brand presence and consumer loyalty through extensive marketing during the "big screen exposure era" [4] - The organization employs a "top-tier talent" strategy, attracting high-level professionals and enabling quick responses to online sales platform changes [4] - The company has significant sales volume, enhancing its negotiation power compared to smaller brands, and maintains high gross margins through vertical integration and cost control [4] Group 4: Long-term Growth Strategy - The company achieved an online GMV of 4.5 billion in the first half of 2025, with multiple products exceeding 100 million in sales [5] - Three new brands are set to launch in 2025, with positive performance from skincare and makeup brands, supporting a revenue target of 30 billion by 2030 [5] - The company is expanding globally, with a 300 million investment in Southeast Asia and plans for further expansion into North America and Europe [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company is building long-term advantages through multi-brand collaboration, channel optimization, and increased R&D investment, with strategic implementation showing continuous results [1] Group 1: Brand Strategy - The company announced Jackson Wang as the global brand ambassador, enhancing its high-end image and international presence [2] - The company has signed popular stars like Ding Yuxi and Tian Xunying, with the latter achieving significant sales on the first day of announcement [2] Group 2: Sales Strategy - The company is focusing on profit and core products during the Double Eleven promotion, leveraging partnerships with influencers like Li Jiaqi to promote high-end series [3] - The X peptide series is reinforced by Jackson Wang's endorsement, while the "Red Luck" concept aligns with the festive season, aiming to boost the cosmetics segment [3] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong brand presence and consumer recognition, benefiting from extensive marketing coverage [4] - The organization employs a "top-tier talent" strategy, attracting high-level professionals and enabling quick responses to market changes [4] - The company has significant negotiation power due to its large sales volume, allowing it to secure resources effectively [4] - The supply chain is vertically integrated, enabling rapid product launches and maintaining high profit margins [4] Group 4: Growth Strategy - The company achieved an online GMV of 4.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with multiple products exceeding 100 million yuan in sales [5] - Three new brands are set to launch in 2025, with positive performance from existing brands, supporting a long-term revenue target of 30 billion yuan by 2030 [5] - The company is expanding globally, with a factory investment of 300 million yuan in Southeast Asia and plans for further expansion into North America and Europe [5]