闫瑞祥：美联储决议与鲍威尔 “双王炸”，多品种分水岭在此一博

Macro Perspective - Gold's status as a "safe haven" has been highlighted amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties, with prices rebounding after hitting a low of $3,366.07 to around $3,388.39 [1] - The main driver for gold's rebound is the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, coupled with increased U.S. military involvement, which has heightened risk aversion and boosted gold's appeal [1] - Despite gold's rise, the U.S. dollar index surged by 0.7% in a single day, which has limited gold's upward movement; weak U.S. retail data signals economic slowdown [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with the market expecting rates to remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, while Trump's calls for rate cuts are being treated cautiously [1] - Looking ahead, geopolitical risks support gold prices, but a strong dollar and the Fed's stance may restrict further gains; investors should closely monitor Fed policies, dollar trends, and Middle Eastern developments [1] Dollar Index - The dollar index showed an upward trend, reaching a high of 98.845 and a low of 97.972, closing at 98.805 [2] - The market experienced short-term fluctuations, with prices consolidating in a support area before a strong upward movement during the U.S. trading session [2] - From a multi-timeframe analysis, the weekly resistance is at 100.35, while the daily key resistance is at 98.70; the focus remains on whether the dollar index can break and hold above these levels [2] Gold Market - On Tuesday, gold prices fluctuated, peaking at $3,403.18 and bottoming at $3,366.07, closing at $3,388.39 [4] - The market's fluctuations are seen as a correction following a previous decline, with attention needed on daily support levels; a break below these levels could lead to further declines [4] - Multi-timeframe analysis indicates that gold remains in a bullish trend unless it breaks below the weekly support around $3,255-$3,260 [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair experienced a downward trend, with a low of 1.1474 and a high of 1.1579, closing at 1.1479 [6] - The market initially faced pressure but later showed signs of consolidation above a four-hour support level before ultimately breaking down [6] - Multi-timeframe analysis suggests that the Euro/USD pair is supported at 1.0850 in the long term, while the key level to watch is 1.1455 for potential trend direction [6]