黄金ETF持仓量报告解读（2025-6-18）以伊局势引发黄金剧烈波动

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 945.94 tons, with an increase of 4.01 tons from the previous trading day [7] - On June 17, spot gold experienced fluctuations, with a daily range of nearly $40, peaking at $3403.35 per ounce and closing at $3388.55 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of $3.56 or 0.11% [7] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the situation in Iran, have contributed to volatility in the gold market, with reports indicating that former President Trump left the G7 summit early due to Middle East concerns [7] Group 2 - Recent U.S. economic data showed a 0.9% month-over-month decline in retail sales for May, marking the largest drop in two years, which has heightened expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7] - Wall Street banks have issued relatively negative signals regarding gold price trends, with Citigroup predicting a decline to $2500 to $2700 per ounce in the second half of 2026 due to weakening investment demand and improving global economic growth [8] - A recent survey indicated that 43% of 72 central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, a significant rise from 29% last year, marking an eight-year high [8] Group 3 - Technically, the daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above the midpoint, indicating a maintained bullish bias for gold, while technical indicators remain positive [8] - Short-term support for gold is identified at $3377, which is a key Fibonacci retracement level, with further support at $3350 and the 21-day simple moving average at $3340 [9] - On the upside, the first resistance level is at $3400, followed by $3440, and then the historical high of $3500 [9]