黄金，新信号！多国央行将继续增持

Group 1 - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that over 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, marking the highest level since the survey began in 2019, and an increase of 17 percentage points from 2024 [1] - The survey collected responses from 73 central banks, the highest participation rate to date, with nearly 43% planning to increase their gold reserves in the coming year [1] - Central banks' primary motivations for holding gold include its long-term value storage function (80%), portfolio diversification (81%), and performance during crises (85%) [1] Group 2 - Citigroup analysts predict that gold prices may fall below $3,000 per ounce in the coming quarters, marking the end of the current record rally, with a peak expected between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce in Q3 of this year [3] - By the second half of 2026, gold prices are anticipated to decline to between $2,500 and $2,700 per ounce, representing a decrease of approximately 20% to 25% from current forward prices [3] Group 3 - Geopolitical tensions are providing short-term support for gold prices, with attention on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Jerome Powell's press conference [4] - Long-term factors influencing gold prices include the global dollar-based credit monetary system, economic de-globalization, central bank de-dollarization, and inflation outlook, suggesting potential for further price increases within the year [4]