期待9月降息的市场，能否得到美联储的回应？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the upcoming decision, with market focus on the potential for two rate cuts this year [1][3][5] - Recent comments from Fed officials indicate reluctance to lower rates due to concerns over tariffs potentially reigniting inflation, posing a dual threat to their dual mandate of low inflation and high employment [3][5] - The upcoming dot plot from the Fed will provide insights into officials' views on rate cuts, with the last plot indicating a consensus for two cuts this year [7] Group 2 - Economic data, including inflation and employment figures, will significantly influence the Fed's future actions, with a stable unemployment rate allowing for prolonged maintenance of current rates [3][5] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is impacting the Fed's policy outlook, as rising oil prices could hinder global economic stability and complicate rate cut plans [5][7] - Market reactions will depend on the Fed's signals; a reinforced outlook for rate cuts could support the stock market, while a strong stance against cuts may hinder recovery [9]