8月降息悬了?英国5月通胀3.4%仍居高位，中东风暴再掀14%油价冲击波

Group 1 - The UK inflation rate remains at its highest level in over a year, with persistent price pressures causing concern [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate fell from a revised 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May, slightly exceeding economists' expectations of 3.3% [1] - The core inflation rate in the services sector decreased from 5.4% to 4.7%, yet it remains within a historically high range [1] Group 2 - The UK Office for National Statistics acknowledged a data error regarding vehicle consumption tax, correcting April's inflation rate to 3.4% instead of the previously reported 3.5% [1] - The May price trends exhibited structural differentiation, with falling costs for airfares and fuel being offset by rising food prices, particularly for chocolate and meat, as well as furniture and household goods [1] - Financial markets reacted sensitively to the inflation data, with the British pound rising 0.3% to a session high of 1.3462 USD [2] Group 3 - Market pricing indicates that investors still expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points within the year, although there is disagreement on the timing [2] - The decision-making process faces multiple challenges, including signs of economic slowdown and a cooling labor market, alongside unexpectedly sticky service sector inflation [2] - Despite widespread expectations that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting on June 19, there remains uncertainty about the initiation of a loosening cycle in August [2]