Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-06-18 08:29Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with a focus on a potentially "hawkish" dot plot that may reshape investor expectations for rate cuts in 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - Market consensus anticipates the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged, with 103 out of 105 economists predicting no change [1] - The key focus is on the dot plot, which may indicate only one rate cut this year, contrary to previous expectations of two cuts in 2025 [1][4] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The economic projections (SEP) are expected to reflect a "stagflation" scenario, with upward revisions to inflation forecasts and downward adjustments to GDP growth and unemployment rates [1][4] - GDP growth forecast is likely to be revised down from 1.7% to 1.4%, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% [4][5] - Core PCE inflation forecast for 2025 is projected to increase significantly, with estimates rising from 2.8% to 3.3% [4][5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Dollar Outlook - Despite potential hawkish signals from the Fed, the dollar may continue to face structural weakness, with a recent 3.8% depreciation observed [8][9] - Any short-term dollar rebound following hawkish signals may be limited due to ongoing selling pressure from global investors [8][9]