美联储利率决议前，美股期指小幅上涨，伊朗释放谈判信号，油价下跌仍接近5个月高点

Market Overview - The market is facing two major uncertainties: potential U.S. intervention in the Middle East conflict and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision [1] - U.S. stock futures have rebounded slightly, with the S&P 500 futures up approximately 0.2% [1][10] - European stocks have also seen a slight increase, with German and French stocks rising about 0.3% [2] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index remained flat, indicating minimal changes in the Asia-Pacific region [3] Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index has decreased by about 0.1%, while the euro and yen have increased by approximately 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively [4] - U.S. Treasury yields have risen slightly, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by over 1 basis point [5] - Spot gold prices remained stable, while silver rose by about 0.3% [6] - Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices have continued to decline, with daily losses expanding to 1% [7][13] - European natural gas futures have surged over 1.4%, reaching above €40 per megawatt-hour, the highest since early April [8] Geopolitical and Economic Context - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has raised concerns about U.S. military involvement, with speculation about a potential attack discussed in a recent National Security Council meeting [9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision, with the market anticipating no changes in June and July, but betting on nearly two rate cuts later this year [9] - The CEO of EFG Asset Management highlighted the uncertainty faced by the Federal Reserve due to various intertwined factors, including tariffs, energy price fluctuations, geopolitical risks, and the growing U.S. fiscal deficit [9] Investor Sentiment - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, has surpassed the critical level of 20, indicating increased investor anxiety amid the Middle East tensions [11] - Despite the geopolitical situation, the market is already facing numerous risks, including high stock valuations and unaccounted uncertainties such as tariff policies and fiscal uncertainties [11]