百利好晚盘分析：市场窄幅震荡 静待利率决议

Gold Market - The U.S. retail sales for May showed a month-on-month decline of 0.9%, lower than the expected 0.7% and the previous value of -0.1%, marking the largest drop since March 2023, indicating a sluggish consumer market which is somewhat bullish for gold prices [1] - Following the data release, gold prices saw reduced downward momentum, hitting a low of $3366 before continuing to trade in a narrow range [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is a key focus for the gold market, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged [1] Oil Market - The API reported a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, with a drop of 10.133 million barrels, far below the expected decrease of 580,000 barrels, indicating strong oil consumption which supports rising oil prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with Russia launching a large-scale counteroffensive against Ukraine and the EU planning to ban imports of Russian oil and gas [2] Geopolitical Tensions - U.S. President Trump urged Iran to surrender unconditionally, while Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei stated the need for a strong response against Israel, indicating ongoing tensions with no signs of reconciliation [3] - The conflict between Iran and Israel is intensifying, which, combined with increased oil demand, provides strong support for oil prices [3] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index continues to oscillate within the range of 21450 to 22060, with recent poor retail data causing a dip to a low of 21630, as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for clearer direction [4] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index is fluctuating between 97.50 and 99.20, with significant support at 97.50 leading to a strong rebound and a short-term upward trend [5]