美元主导地位已不再确定无疑，国际货币体系面临变革的契机

Core Viewpoint - The global monetary system is undergoing significant changes, with discussions on whether a single sovereign currency or a few strong currencies should dominate. The positions of the US dollar, euro, and renminbi in the global monetary system are being reevaluated [2][3]. Group 1: Perspectives from Central Bank Leaders - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde emphasizes the opportunity for the euro to increase its global standing amid declining confidence in the dollar due to US policies [2][3]. - Lagarde notes that the euro currently holds a 20% share in global foreign exchange reserves, while the dollar accounts for 58%, suggesting that enhancing the euro's status could lead to lower borrowing costs and reduced exchange rate risks [3][6]. - People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng advocates for reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency, promoting healthy competition among a few strong currencies to enhance the resilience of the international monetary system [2][5]. Group 2: Current Trends and Market Reactions - The dollar's dominance is being challenged, with a 9.14% decline in the dollar index this year, while the euro has risen by 11.21%, the yen by 7.81%, and the renminbi by 1.56% [3]. - Gold has seen a significant increase of 27.4%, indicating a shift in market confidence away from the current monetary system [3][4]. - Lagarde points out that the rising demand for gold reflects a lack of confidence in existing currencies, presenting a unique opportunity for the euro [4]. Group 3: Characteristics of the Evolving Monetary System - The international monetary system is evolving towards a multipolar structure, which may enhance policy constraints on sovereign currency countries and improve global financial stability [5][7]. - The euro, established in 1999, has become the second-largest currency in global foreign exchange reserves, while the renminbi has steadily increased its international standing, becoming the second-largest trade financing currency [5][6]. - Lagarde highlights that the EU's strong fiscal position, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 89% compared to the US's 124%, could bolster confidence in the euro, although the supply of high-quality safe assets remains limited [6][7].