霍尔木兹海峡风声鹤唳 欧洲天然气价格连涨六日

Core Viewpoint - European natural gas prices have risen for six consecutive days, driven by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, raising concerns about potential disruptions in the critical energy trade route of the Strait of Hormuz [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - The TTF natural gas futures price surged by 2.8% on Wednesday, surpassing €40 per megawatt-hour for the first time since early April [1]. - Approximately 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and any disruption could lead to disproportionate price increases in LNG [1][2]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to keep European natural gas prices rising more strongly than Brent crude oil prices due to tighter supply-demand fundamentals in the gas market [1][3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Concerns - Observers are worried that Iran may block oil and LNG vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which could exacerbate supply chain issues [2]. - Qatar has instructed LNG carriers to wait outside the Strait until loading operations are ready, indicating a potential bottleneck in LNG supply [2]. - The risk of trade disruptions has also contributed to rising Brent crude oil prices, reflecting broader market anxieties [2]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts from Citigroup noted that the rise in European natural gas prices is expected to be stronger than that of Brent crude oil due to the tighter fundamentals in the gas market [3]. - The next few days will be critical in determining whether energy and gas prices will continue to rise or stabilize temporarily [3]. - Potential threats from Iran against U.S. military bases and reduced LNG vessel traffic through the Strait pose significant upward risks to global natural gas supply [3].