1400万销量没了！特朗普重创美国电车行业，2040年或全球垫底

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the Trump administration's efforts to overturn electric vehicle (EV) supportive policies may lead to the U.S. falling behind in EV development in the coming years, potentially not reaching global average adoption rates until 2040 [1]. Group 1: U.S. Electric Vehicle Market Outlook - Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has downgraded both short-term and long-term EV outlooks for the U.S., reducing the forecast for battery electric vehicle sales before 2030 by 14 million units [1][2]. - The U.S. is expected to revert to the fuel economy and emissions standards from Trump's first term, with most EVs losing access to the $7,500 tax credit after this year [2]. Group 2: Comparison with China - China is projected to account for nearly two-thirds of the global sales of 22 million plug-in vehicles this year, largely due to government incentives, while U.S. EV policies face significant challenges [2]. - BNEF predicts that within a year, the size of China's EV market will surpass the total volume of the U.S. automotive market, with nearly 70% of global EV production coming from China last year [5]. Group 3: State-Level Policy Uncertainty - The fate of state-level policies, particularly California's stricter clean air regulations, adds uncertainty to the EV sales outlook in the U.S. [3]. - California's Attorney General Rob Bonta has filed a lawsuit against the federal government's decision to eliminate state policy exemptions [4]. Group 4: Impact of Policy Changes - If attempts to revoke California's waiver succeed, it could severely impact EV sales in California, which is crucial to the overall U.S. EV market [5]. - The simultaneous removal of demand-side subsidies and supply-side mandates could lead to a significant decline in U.S. EV sales [5].