美联储“按兵不动”可能再次招致特朗普不满

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is signaling a long-term intention to maintain interest rates unchanged, with no immediate rate cuts expected, as economic conditions remain stable and uncertain factors persist [2][3]. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slow cooling, with no immediate triggers for the Federal Reserve to intervene, despite concerns over tariffs and their impact on inflation [3][4]. - The unemployment rate has remained stable for three consecutive months, which allows the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high as a measure against potential inflation [3][5]. Inflation and Interest Rates - Recent inflation data has not raised alarms, with core inflation in May remaining below expectations for the fourth consecutive month, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury prices [3][6]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may not lower borrowing costs until at least September, with traders betting on multiple rate cuts later in the year [2][3]. Federal Reserve Predictions - Upcoming economic and interest rate forecasts are expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's thinking, particularly following President Trump's tariff announcements [4][5]. - Analysts note a wide range of possibilities in the Federal Reserve's predictions, with some suggesting that a significant increase in the unemployment rate could lead to rate cuts before the fourth quarter [5][6]. Policy Uncertainty - Federal Reserve officials are considering the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies, which may lead them to maintain their current forecasts without significant changes [7][8]. - The timing of the Federal Reserve's next actions will depend on how long Trump's policies take to reflect in economic data and the strength of recession concerns that arise from these data [7][8].