【南篱/黄金】黄金破位边缘

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting the formation of a bearish flag pattern and the resistance levels around 3395-3401, which have not been breached despite multiple attempts [2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The current market dynamics suggest that if the price closes below the mid-Bollinger band around 3347, it indicates a continued hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to further downward movement and a shift towards safe-haven assets [3][4]. - Conversely, if the price closes above this level, it may signal the end of the current adjustment phase, with market participants betting on interest rate cuts and the implications of rising inflation and economic slowdown in the U.S. [3][4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Predictions - The dot plot from March indicates the possibility of two interest rate cuts in 2025, but there is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's future decisions, which could lead to a more hawkish outlook if officials change their stance [4]. - The probabilities for various interest rate ranges show a significant likelihood of maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% in the near term, with a gradual shift expected towards lower rates by mid-2025 [3].