会前再“放风”？新美联储通讯社：今夜美联储点阵图或将巨变

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on whether the median rate forecast from the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates one or two rate cuts in 2025, especially as the upcoming meeting is expected to maintain current interest rates [1][2] - The dot plot's predictions are based on economic forecasts that are highly uncertain, and small changes in these predictions can significantly reshape the Federal Reserve's policy narrative [2][3] - The Federal Reserve officials recognize the limitations of the dot plot and may consider reforms to their communication tools, potentially moving away from median predictions to provide a full range of forecasts [1][4] Group 2 - The dot plot's overemphasis reflects the lack of suspense in the current meeting, but this obsession has reached an absurd level given the inherent uncertainty in the economic forecasts [2][3] - A small number of officials adjusting their predictions can lead to significant shifts in the median forecast, which can create confusion when unexpected economic results occur [3][4] - The debate over the dot plot's effectiveness centers on whether it provides transparency or leads to confusion, with some suggesting a compromise of discontinuing the dot plot while still sharing a range of predictions [5][6] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly those from the Trump administration, complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to make accurate predictions, as higher tariffs introduce new inflation risks [6] - The labor market appears slightly weaker than a few months ago, contributing to the challenges in maintaining confidence in rate cut predictions [6]