美联储今年或至少降息一次，很可能是因为“坏消息”！

Group 1 - Economists suggest that rising unemployment may trigger the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts, as the Fed has maintained the benchmark loan rate around 4.4% since January [1] - The Fed is expected to continue its "wait and see" strategy amid renewed tensions in the Middle East, with officials anticipating that Trump's tariff policies will impact consumer spending and corporate profits, potentially leading to higher unemployment [1] - The latest economic forecasts from Fed policymakers may indicate at least one interest rate cut this year, primarily due to negative economic news, with expectations of a downturn in the labor market [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns about stagflation are rising, with economists predicting that the U.S. economy is moving towards a situation where stagnation and inflation coexist, although stagflation has not fully manifested yet [2] - The Fed faces a dilemma as it must balance its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, with increasing signs of strain in the labor market, such as reduced job vacancies and rising unemployment claims [2] - Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut rates more quickly, arguing that the Fed is lagging behind its European counterparts and that rate cuts could alleviate the federal government's interest payments on a growing budget deficit [3]