Workflow
石油投资宜短不宜长?德银:过去150年年化回报仅为0.5%
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-06-18 13:24

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the analysis is that oil has provided a mere 0.5% annual real return over the past 150 years, significantly lagging behind U.S. stocks at 6.58% and U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds at 1.84% [1][4] - The main issue facing commodity investments, particularly oil, is the lack of cash flow returns, compounded by technological advancements that suppress price increases [3][4] - The analysis indicates that oil's long-term investment disadvantages stem from its inability to generate cash flow, unlike stocks and bonds, and that technological progress and substitution effects keep oil prices aligned with historical trends [4][5] Group 2 - Despite limited long-term investment value, oil prices can experience extreme short-term volatility, with significant fluctuations observed from 2008 to 2020, surpassing the stability seen from the late 1940s to 1973 [5] - Historical turning points, such as the 1973 oil crisis, have drastically altered pricing mechanisms, leading to substantial price increases and economic impacts on multiple countries [5] - The research suggests that for ordinary investors, the optimal strategy in the oil market is to capitalize on short-term volatility rather than holding for the long term, as current oil prices are near historical averages, limiting potential for significant increases [5]