特朗普政策推动美元今年暴跌10%，华尔街警告"玩火自焚"

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is experiencing one of its worst years, with significant declines against major currencies, largely attributed to Trump's policies and their impact on investor confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Decline Factors - The dollar has fallen over 10% against the euro, pound, and Swiss franc, driven by Trump's tax cuts and trade policies, which pose risks to the budget deficit and economic growth [1]. - Trump's public attacks on the Federal Reserve and the introduction of punitive tax measures for international investors have eroded confidence in the stability of the US financial system [1]. - The traditional positive correlation between US Treasury yields and the dollar has broken down, with the dollar continuing to weaken despite rising bond yields [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - A recent survey by Bank of America indicates that fund managers are reducing their dollar holdings at the highest rate in 20 years, suggesting that the most painful trade this summer is being long on the dollar [6]. - The World Gold Council's survey reveals that nearly three-quarters of central banks expect their dollar-denominated reserves to decrease within five years, up from 62% last year [6]. - Concerns about US policy uncertainty are leading more exporters to reject the dollar as a settlement currency, indicating a shift in international trade practices [6]. Group 3: Government Financing and Market Reactions - The US government faces an annual financing need exceeding $4 trillion, and a continued decline in the dollar could deter international creditors [7]. - Analysts warn of a potential vicious cycle where foreign investors withdraw, leading to higher borrowing costs and further weakening the dollar [7]. - Despite the dollar's decline, the Trump administration appears indifferent, only expressing traditional support for a "strong dollar" without taking substantial action [7][8].