Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite weak retail sales data in the US and cautious consumer spending, the US dollar has strengthened against major currencies, with the dollar index rising by 0.64% to 98.8 points, suggesting a shift in market drivers from economic fundamentals to geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations [1][3][4] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly Israel's military actions against Iran, have escalated global risk sentiment, leading to a resurgence of the dollar's safe-haven status [3] - The Federal Reserve's policy outlook is a focal point for the market, with expectations that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, while investors are keenly watching for signals regarding future rate cuts or a prolonged period of high rates to combat persistent core inflation [3][4] - Specific currency movements include the euro declining by 0.68% to 1.1481 USD, influenced by disappointing economic data from the Eurozone and concerns over the European Central Bank's policy space, and the British pound falling by 1.08% to 1.3430 USD amid worries about the UK's economic recovery [3][4] - The Japanese yen has shown a notable decline, with the dollar rising by 0.4% to 145.32 yen, as the Bank of Japan maintained its dovish stance and indicated a slowdown in balance sheet reduction [4] - The Australian dollar has decreased by 0.8% to 0.6474 USD, reflecting heightened risk aversion among global investors, exacerbated by volatility in the commodity markets and weak demand in the Asia-Pacific region [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to influence the dollar's trajectory, with potential hawkish signals from the Fed likely to support further dollar strength [4]
DLS外汇：避险需求回归 美元缘何逆势上涨？美联储利率前景成变量
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-18 15:04