0618：今夜聚焦美联储利率会议，点阵图是关键！

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with 103 out of 105 economists predicting no change [3] - There is a growing hawkish sentiment suggesting that the median of the dot plot may shift upward, indicating only one rate cut this year [3][5] - Economic forecasts are likely to be adjusted, with inflation predictions significantly raised while growth and unemployment rates may be lowered due to tariff impacts [3][5] Group 2 - Bank of America predicts an upward adjustment of 25 basis points in the 2025 dot plot median, suggesting only one rate cut this year, while indicating a potential 75 basis points cut in 2026 [5][7] - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup expect the median of the dot plot to remain unchanged at two rate cuts [7] - Powell is anticipated to emphasize that the dot plot is merely a hypothetical scenario and highly dependent on uncertain economic and policy conditions [8]