Can Ozempic, Wegovy Drive Further Growth for NVO in the Obesity Space?

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk generates significant revenue from its GLP-1 injections, Ozempic and Wegovy, which have seen rapid demand growth due to increased prescription rates [1][2] - Combined sales of Ozempic and Wegovy reached DKK 50.1 billion in Q1 2025, representing approximately 66% of the company's total revenues [2][9] - Novo Nordisk holds a leading market position in both the diabetes GLP-1 segment with a 54% market share and the obesity market with a 68.7% market share as of Q1 2025 [2] Sales and Market Position - The company faced supply shortages for Ozempic and Wegovy in H2 2024, which were resolved after ramping up manufacturing, allowing for a potential sales rebound [3][9] - Novo Nordisk has established partnerships with pharmacy benefit managers and telehealth providers to enhance the marketing of Wegovy in the U.S., providing a competitive edge [3] Regulatory Approvals and Indications - New indications for Ozempic and Wegovy are expected to drive sales higher, with Ozempic's label expanded to include cardiovascular risk reduction and kidney failure treatment in T2D patients [4] - Wegovy's label has also been expanded to reduce major adverse cardiovascular event risks, and further indications for preventing heart failure in obesity patients are being pursued [4] Competitive Landscape - The obesity market is projected to grow to $100 billion by 2030, intensifying competition, particularly from Eli Lilly's tirzepatide products [5] - Other companies like Amgen and Viking Therapeutics are advancing their GLP-1-based candidates, increasing competitive pressure in the market [6][7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Novo Nordisk shares have decreased by 13.6%, underperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [8][10] - The stock is currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 17.67, above the industry average of 15.63, but below its five-year mean of 29.26 [12] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have improved from $3.80 to $3.84 per share, and for 2026 from $4.60 to $4.64 [15]