美联储维持利率稳定，无视特朗普

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintains a patient approach while observing the potential impacts of tariffs under President Trump's policies, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5% [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Predictions - The Federal Reserve has not adjusted interest rates for six months, indicating a cautious stance as it monitors inflation and economic activity [1] - The Fed predicts that the personal consumption expenditure index, its preferred inflation measure, will rise from 2.1% to 3% by the end of 2025, reflecting increased inflation expectations [1] - The Fed forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, with additional cuts in 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 2: Economic Implications of Tariffs - Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns that tariffs could raise prices and pressure economic activity, with the impact depending on the final tariff levels [1][2] - Recent months have seen a restrained stance from the Fed, which has drawn sharp criticism from Trump, who has urged for lower interest rates [3][5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has contributed to a slowdown in hiring, although the job market remains robust [6] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Growth Concerns - Powell has cautioned about the risk of "stagflation," where rising inflation coincides with economic slowdown, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [8][9] - If the Fed raises rates to combat tariff-induced inflation, it risks stifling borrowing and further slowing the economy [9] - Conversely, lowering rates to stimulate the economy could exacerbate inflation [10] Group 4: Recent Developments in Tariff Policies - Trump has recently rolled back some of his most severe tariffs, easing costs for importers, which may mitigate price increases [11] - Despite some tariff reductions, a 10% comprehensive tariff remains on most imports, with certain tariffs still in effect for steel, aluminum, and automobiles [14] - Retailers like Walmart and Best Buy have warned of potential price increases due to tariffs, with the OECD projecting U.S. inflation could reach 4% by the end of 2025 [15]