美联储继续按兵不动，称不确定性减弱但还高，仍预计今年降息两次，暗示滞胀风险增加

Core Points - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change [2][4] - The Fed's statement indicated a reduction in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, while still acknowledging that risks remain high [5][6] - The median forecast for interest rates remains unchanged, with expectations for two rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, although the number of officials predicting no cuts has increased [11][16] - The Fed has lowered its GDP growth forecasts for the next two years, projecting a slowdown to 1.4% for this year, while raising unemployment and PCE inflation expectations [17][19][20] Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement reiterated that net export fluctuations have impacted data, but economic activity continues to expand steadily [7][8] - The Fed will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, with a slower pace of balance sheet reduction [7][8] Interest Rate Projections - The updated dot plot shows a more hawkish stance, with an increase in the number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year [16] - The median projections for the federal funds rate at the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.9%, 3.6%, and 3.4% respectively, indicating a lower expected rate of cuts compared to previous forecasts [11][12][13] Inflation and Unemployment Expectations - The Fed has raised its PCE inflation forecast for this year to 3.0%, significantly above the recently reported level of 2.1% [20][22] - Unemployment rate expectations have been adjusted upward, with projections of 4.5% for 2025, compared to previous estimates [19][22]