美联储维持今年将降息2次的预测，内部分歧或加大

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, consistent with market expectations, marking four consecutive months of unchanged rates. The Fed had previously cut rates by 100 basis points over the past year [1][6]. Economic Projections - The Fed has revised its economic growth forecast for the U.S. down from 1.7% to 1.4% for this year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the March projection. The growth forecast for 2026 has been adjusted from 1.8% to 1.6%, while the 2027 forecast remains at 1.8% [6]. - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% for this year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the March forecast. The PCE inflation forecast for this year is set at 3%, up from the previous estimate of 2.7%. The forecast for core PCE inflation is 3.1%, compared to 2.8% in March [6]. Dot Plot Insights - The dot plot indicates that 8 members support two rate cuts this year, a decrease of one from the March dot plot, while 7 members favor maintaining the current rate, an increase of three. This suggests a growing divergence within the Fed regarding future monetary policy [2][4]. Interest Rate Projections - The median projection for the federal funds rate remains at 3.9% for 2025, while the 2026 median projection has been raised from 3.4% to 3.6%. The long-term neutral rate expectation remains at 3% [1][5].